Mozambique is a physically strange country. The capital, Maputo, it takes too much power and is too far from everything. South of the South, it is the last corner of a state that has almost 3000 kilometers of coastline in a straight line. This is Mozambique's big problem, national power, government, and international, which includes diplomats and international organizations, lives completely distant from the country from which they have to make decisions. They read or listen to it, but they don't feel it because of an immense physical distance.
Maputo becomes an unreal island where its inhabitants, local and international, they are not aware that they live in a bubble within their own state
Then Maputo becomes an unreal island where its inhabitants, local and international, they are not aware that they live in a bubble within their own state. Mozambique's roads are very bad, the railroad almost non-existent and the flights are scarce and wildly expensive. It is a country where nobody knows first hand what happens beyond its closest neighbor. It is governed and thinks by hearsay.
The country lives on two sources of income: international donations, until recently it was considered the model country for cooperation in Africa (in fact, “budget support” is mostly practiced, which means that the money is delivered directly to the state for administration) and the huge bags of natural resources, especially coal and gas, that in the next few years they will leave trillions of dollars in the country.
I will give just some of the latest data offered by the World Bank to contextualize the country, but in general, the feeling is that the country is growing a lot in its macroeconomy, stagnates with small advances in education and health and alarmingly decreases in security, democracy and public liberties.
Joseph Stiqlitz brilliantly defined it after a visit as "a rich country with poor people"
Life expectancy has passed 45 to 49 years in the last two decades. The poverty index, despite macroeconomic data, rose from 2003 a 2009 (last reference) in six tenths until 54,7%. Access to water supply for the rural population, near to 70% of the total, has passed from 31% the 2007 the 33% the 2011. GDP per capita has improved from 260 dollars of 2004 to 510 the 2012. A fact that will multiply greatly if, as the World Bank predicts, gas farms produce benefits of more than 50.000 million. (You know the problem here is that if there are two people on an island and one wins 100 and another zero, GDP per capita will say that both win 50). Official primary schooling is 105%.
The recent municipal elections have also been significant. Renamo did not attend the elections, for denouncing tricks and Frelimo has seen how a new young adversary comes out and grows, the MDM, who won in three heavy regional capitals in the center and north of the country: Border, Quelimane and Nampula. It's a young party, assembled by Renamo's ex, which may be a third way to the two old dinosaurs if not modernized.
In that panorama, from a country that economist Joseph Stiqlitz brilliantly defined after a visit as "a rich country with poor people", A neglected and forgotten armed conflict has been developing for a year. Why?
Renamo, main opposition party and one of the two sides that fought in the bloody civil war, decided more than a year ago to return to arms. He did it gradually, first with threats and then with low or medium intensity guerrilla actions that have been maintained throughout the year. Frelimo while, involved in an internal war for the succession of the current president, Armando Guebuza, which seems finally to be settled at its congress in late February, It has limited itself to guaranteeing the control of most of the country and to reducing the media exposure of the conflict, showing itself as the only guarantor of peace..
All attacks are limited to the central area of ??the country, to the area that includes the surroundings of the Sierra de Gorongosa
The reason for this vague government response is that all attacks are confined to the central area of ??the country, to the area that includes the surroundings of the Sierra de Gorongosa. That historic bastion of Renamo, where the vegetation is very dense and it is very difficult to pose an open battle to an enemy hidden in the jungle. Ie, the conflict develops in absolute solitude, away from that Maputo in which their garbage cans and postin restaurants are still full of people who eat a la carte or a la carte.
And in that solitude the population is constantly being lied to. Renamo does it by intoxicating and appealing to a scenario of total war that does not exist and giving inflated death figures from its attacks. Frelimo lies denying real attacks on victims and reporting only the few successes of his military forces. The reality is that there are more attacks and more deaths than some recognize and less than those that others presume. There are even defections within the demoralized government troop.
The reality is that there are more attacks and more deaths than some recognize and less than those that others presume
I passed through the conflict zone several times this summer, once even guiding a trip with tourists. There is a grotesque military column that escorts during 120 kilometers to cars. Column that is now frequently attacked. Almost nothing happens outside of those 150 miles around. The problem is that it is the only reasonable way to go north-south, even east west. If you avoid that path, the conflict is almost non-existent for now in Mozambique. Just close to Nampula and now Maxixe seems, Homoine, there has been a recent attack outside of that Renamo area of ??influence.
In the last week I have twice received secret information about the Renamo attacks that would have resulted in more than 60 dead among the ranks of the Army. Other military sources acknowledge that the attacks have occurred, that there were victims, but that the figure is inflated. There is no official statement. They also told me this morning that there is near 4000 displaced from the Sierra de Gorongosa who flee for fear and go to community schools. "The confrontations are constant", a well-informed source was telling me.
While, those responsible for the beautiful Gorongosa National Park, in the midst of a project to recover fauna depleted in the civil war, They have answered that they prefer not to answer my questions to avoid the negative publicity that comes from recognizing that the facilities have been abandoned due to an armed conflict.. You don't know what's going on in there, if there will be again the animal slaughters of yesteryear. The p. N. Gorongosa is an almost perfect thermometer of the country's social status. It has to reopen its doors in April, after the rainy season, and at this time no one can guarantee its opening.
The p. N. Gorongosa is an almost perfect thermometer of the country's social status
Economically, the conflict has meant a blow to the economy of the central zone, little important in percentage terms for a country that lives on the resources of the north and the finances of the south. I will give an example, the entire hotel sector of Vilanculos, main tourist destination in the country, has been almost bankrupt. At the high peaks of the conflict, when some information was released in the South African media, there are cancellations of reservations close to 100%. Christmas, pushed by domestic tourism, something better has happened than the terrible months of October and November, where the hotel rooms were empty.
"It takes CNN or the BBC to come for this conflict to become public", Some Mozambicans tell me that they demand that what is happening be told. An opinion that contrasts a lot with that of some foreigners with whom I speak, who live in Maputo, and that a thousand kilometers away from the problem, they have a denialist view of the conflict.
Renamo seeks to internationalize the problem to get a slice from a board where it has no chips
But for the BBC or CNN to come, it takes a genocide like the Central African Republic, thousands of dead are needed, that millionaire western investments are endangered or that the bombs rumble in Maputo. This last option is a constant rumor that sources close to Renamo have always hinted at., suggesting that the conflict and chaos will move to the capital if there is no political solution. For this they have spent weeks from embassy to embassy requesting international mediation. Renamo seeks to internationalize the problem to get a slice from a board where it has no chips.
Perhaps it is easier for the death of a few targets for the desired, for some, landing of the mainstream media. Who cares in the West about the deaths of tens or hundreds of poor blacks in a limited area of ??an unknown African country? It does not matter if the sum exceeds a hundred or a thousand as long as it is produced little by little, in silence, unwitnessed. As long as it affects poor peasants in the Gorongosa Mountains, guerrillas who have been living in the jungle 20 years or soldiers who doubt whether to die of a bullet or starvation.
I will tell an example of the absurd, in my opinion, of the internal vision of foreigners in this conflict. At a recent party I met an expat who lives very well in the capital. "Very sensational information is made about the conflict in Mozambique", criticizes and then continues with laughter affirming that "however, it seems incredible to me that nothing has come out of the wave of kidnappings that has taken place in the capital ”.
Very sensational information is made of the Mozambique conflict
Well, the wave of kidnappings he talks about shook all of Maputo. For weeks several people were kidnapped, including children, some of the best schools in town. In principle it only affected Muslims, but then it spread to Westerners and an alarm was generated in which there were even urgent meetings with the Government. It was a serious and serious matter that in total affected about three dozen people officially, although here also it seems that the real number of affected was lowered. Among the international troupe it became an obsession that caused many families of highly paid workers to return home. To her, the woman at the party, it seemed to him that this topic should be given in large, that was a serious conflict that the press was hiding. The reason is that it was close to him, I could fear it, was not a thousand kilometers.
Why is there conflict? Here I will make a quick summary, sorry. For money. Renamo wants power and money, he wants a piece of the new huge cake and he knows that Frelimo is not willing to give out. Guebuza has practiced a centralist policy, dotted with corruption cases to be clarified, that has generated political and social fractures.
There is no war, there are votes and a weak democracy in which power is won in questionable ballot boxes
The time in which the decisions were divided by two after the signing of the Rome peace agreements is over. There is no longer total war, there are votes and a weak democracy in which power is won in questionable ballot boxes. Not because of the process, by the conditions. The Frelimo ward secretaries have a lot of power, the media is being pressured and the vote lacks in most cases information and yes of many pressures, but everything is reasonably acceptable as a democratic game. Ie, you look the other way and cover your nose that the important thing now is to consolidate peace, what seems even unfairly logical. A woman I know, excellent cook, did not end up working at the Punta Vermelha Palace, official residence of the president, because after passing all the tests I didn't have the Frelimo card. It's just an example, there are thousands.
The madness of the system has reached such a point that Renamo even gives press conferences in which he is responsible for attacks on the legitimate state security forces and the president of the electoral council gives press conferences with a Frelimo shirt.
I will tell another example about this vision of the use of power. I recently flew from Johannesburg to Maputo. On the plane a friendly group of Frelimo delegates came who had participated in various political meetings in different Latin American countries. When the plane landed everyone started to sing loudly party songs. “Samora, Samora, Chissano, Chissano, Guebuza, Guebuza, the same ideal ”. A passenger then got up and said "it doesn't seem to me that Samora and Guebuza have the same ideal". Then the one who was the leader reproaches him for his words and answers standing up, shouting: "What are you going to say? You like to eat, ¿ no? Let me eat too ", raising the fervent applause of his companions who perhaps did not understand the aberration that their leader had just released: they voted for her to eat the others, not her.
They didn't understand the aberration their leader had just released: they voted for her to eat the others, not her
Technically you can't say there is a war, because there is no open conflict with two sides and two armies, and technically it can be said that there is a pre-war state that has carried away a few dozen lives, without anyone being able to give an exact number and without anyone being able to say if they are 20 the 200. They star, in fact, the same two sides that had this country at war during 16 years and left a million dead. It doesn't seem convenient to underestimate it.
The problem must be tackled, go public and settle, don't hide. It is not a question of image and investments, it's a matter of the dead being buried. I guess to them, those who seem inevitable next deceased, they wish it had been so. There is no war or conflict in Maputo's restaurants and shops. There is no war but a relatively close guerrilla conflict in Chimoio and Beira that produces some economic damage to areas already punished. There is an open war in Muxungue, Gorongosa, Satungira ... where people die, shops are closed, schools, scared, panic. Happens there, center, too far from the coal, gas and Maputo. It passes there without anyone speaking beyond some local media, like The Truth, Mozambique u O Pais Channel, that with few means make fantastic information. Happens in the worst possible scenario for victims, oblivion.
